I translated a discussion I had with my little brother, he wrote me his opinion on ADA Cardano, which I find interesting. I am someone that put my cash in ADA, my brother has been in the crypto game way longer than me and I always ask for his advice even if he’s younger than me (that dude is smart), I just want to share it with you.
He wrote :
I started to invest in crypto on June the 19th 2017, I put 500 euros of my student loan because I thought that it was money I could lose or spend, since I don’t have to reimburse it before 2019. At this moment, the capitalization of all the crypto were USD 112 Billions: I had the feeling that it would raise because the technology behind it is interesting and can have an impact on all industries. That was a bet.
On July the 16th 2017, the capitalization was at USD 68 billions, -40%. I wasn’t touched too much because I was lucky in the crypto I invested in at first. On December the 21st, the capitalization was at 648 billions : when I’m sending you this message, it’s 575 billions. To make it simple : the average earning from an investor has been around 380%. If we take it from Jan the 1st, it has been 3185% : it is absolutely gigantic. I have the feeling that in a year, we’ll be above today’s level, if I had to answer to a survey with the answers : 0-500 Billions, 500bil – 1 tr, 1tr – 1,5tr, 1,5tr – 2tr, 2tr - 2tr+ / I’d say between 1 and 1.5 for December the 31st 2018. We can fall at 200 Bil before rising again, it’s a big roller coaster, but globally I think that it will continue to grow and that’s the reason why I didn’t cash out my investment.
There are multiple « Big Risks » that can affect the market right now : - If the stock market falls, which is a risk that will probably happen before the end of Trump presidency, I don’t really know how it will affect the crypto market, but there’s a high probability that It will fall.
- If the bitcoin price falls, since most coins are traded in BTC, most of them risk to fall too.
- If some countries start to install regulations and other, which will happen, it can slow down the market growth.
- “If”. It’s my feeling, I’m not saying I’m right, but I’d rather share with you why I think that for you to take your decisions having different opinions.
I don’t know when your friends started to invest, neither what amount they put or on what crypto, but I’m going to give you my opinion on Cardano, it’s JUST MY 2 CENTS, but I’d rather be honest with you : Cardano wants to become a platform. The principal engine to a platform and its value is the network effect: Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber, Airbnb, Netflix; All those companies created platforms that are successful because they knew how to bring X and Y in the same place : (X: Search, friends, advertising, drivers, housing, content providers; Y : customers). The more houses or drivers, the more YOU, as a customer will want to use the platform because it will be easier, less expensive and faster to find what you’re looking for (in theory).
Today, cardano is scheduling its platform launch around mid-2018. Today, Cardano is valued at 18 billions. It was at 1 billion 35 days ago : to you, what does justify a growth of 1800% ? Speculation or a real project advancement ? 18 billions for a platform that still isn’t on the market. It also has multiple competitors : Etherum, NEO, EOS, Ark. Ethereum has hundreds of projects that are being built. NEO has more than 20, some already launched, 15 that will come in January (disclaimer: I invested money on NEO because I estimate that its value is under evaluated compared to other platforms like Ethereum, EOS, Cardano lol).
SpaceX, sending rockets into space was evaluated at 21billions in July. Peugeot, sending millions of cars, is evaluated at 15.5 billions : can Cardano, that didn’t deploy its platform yet, can legitimately be worth more than Peugeot today ? not for me, it’s a bet I wouldn’t take. For me, Cardano still didn’t ‘Deserve’ this capitalization, because it still didn’t deliver projects that justify it. Maybe in 5 years It will be the biggest blockchain platform, with the best technology, and the capitalization will be worth 300 billions, Idk, time will tell, but when I look today’s value compared to what it was 35 days ago, and I look at the road map, I wouldn’t take the risk of putting (X€ amount – what I put on it) on this project today : it’s always a question of risk/earning.
Another point : the project is still new, there are no platform allowing to buy directly ADA from euros or dollars, it’s not on Bitfinex or Coinbase and it’s a reason why you should be careful regarding its value. I think most of Cardano is owned by Japanese funds : which means that the trading volume is limited because a lot of these funds are ‘locked’. Bots can easily artificially raise the trading volume, and the price too, if a good share of the owners can’t « sell » when they wish to.
Putting everything on a project is a real Poker play : and it was a winning one for you in just 24 hours (I -baneparis- invested some savings when cardano was worth 0.4388 eur all tax included (fees from binance etc)).
I just wanted to share with you 😊
I translated everything from french to english so sorry for the mistakes if there are some. I just wanted to share with the community. I'm not sponsoring anything, I'm just someone that invested in ADA and that is curious as I'm very new to the crypto world :)
Happy New Year ! And I hope for the best in the coming months.
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